We are finally here. The beginning of the 2023 NFL Playoffs kicking off with Super Wild Card Weekend
Lots of exciting matchups to talk about including some regular season rematches, divisional battles, and young quarterbacks taking the big stage for the first time in their early NFL careers
I usually break down the matchup within the matchup and discuss who has the edge in specific departments on both sides of the ball so I’ll stick with that as we break down each of the six games
Let’s get started
An NFC West battle is how we start Super Wild Card weekend when the Seahawks travel to Santa Clara to take on the 49ers. Seattle had to survive overtime to beat the Rams and get help from Detroit to make the postseason while the 49ers have been the most consistent team in the NFL. This should be a good game to watch on Saturday
When the 49ers run the ball, advantage: 49ERS – Seattle still has the worst run defense in the league and now they have to stop Christian McCaffrey and potentially Deebo Samuel in the Shanahan run game system
When the 49ers pass the ball, advantage: 49ERS – Seattle does have a good secondary, but with Samuel’s speed back and more help in the pass game I can see Brock Purdy taking some shots and exposing this Seattle defense
When the Seahawks run the ball, advantage: 49ERS – There’s too many big guys up front for the 49ers that can shut down Kenneth Walker. I just don’t think Seattle’s line can create holes in the run game consistently
When the Seahawks pass the ball, advantage: SEAHAWKS – Geno has balled out lately with Lockett and Metcalf, but he’ll need all the protection he can get against Bosa and company
Special Teams, advantage: 49ERS – Too much speed with returners and more consistent kicking from Robbie Gould
How can the Seahawks win this game: Win the battle of the trenches and get takeaways
How can the 49ers win this game: Defend the pass well enough on defense
PREDICTION: I can see Seattle keeping this close for maybe a half before the 49ers let loose the dogs up front and overwhelm Seattle’s offense. I also think Brock Purdy will play a turnover free game in this one with Shanahan’s run first offense that can slice up the Seahawks defense. 49ers win this one 30-17
Jacksonville, FL
8:15pm on NBC (SAT)
LINE: (LAC -2.5)
Boy, this is a fun one to watch on Saturday. Justin Herbert vs Trevor Lawrence, Joey Bosa vs Travon Walker, Chargers vs Jaguars. Lots of young talent on both rosters, and it will be exciting to watch both quarterbacks take the big stage
When the Jaguars run the ball, advantage: JAGUARS – The Chargers are still one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL and I could see Travis Etienne having another big game
When the Jaguars pass the ball, advantage: CHARGERS – The Chargers secondary matches up well with the Jags receivers and I think Joey Bosa will make noise against a Jags o-line that’s a little thin at tackle
When the Chargers run the ball, advantage: JAGUARS – Not only do the Chargers stink at stopping the run, they can’t run the ball themselves. Jacksonville has gotten better at taking away the run in the last few games. Think this edge goes to Jacksonville
When the Chargers pass the ball, advantage: CHARGERS – If Mike Williams is healthy, it’s a huge boost to Herbert in the pass game and we’ve seen the Jaguars struggle against teams that can air it out. Tough matchup for Jacksonville’s secondary
Special Teams. advantage: JAGUARS – I still don’t know if I can trust the Chargers to make a clutch kick if needed
How can the Chargers win this game: Run the ball and get after Trevor Lawrence
How can the Jaguars win this game: Force Herbert into turnovers and score touchdowns in the red zone
PREDICTION: This is tough. I like both quarterbacks and I love their weaponry, but I think Doug Pederson’s experience in the postseason will help the Jaguars to victory and as much as I love the Chargers I don’t know if they can run the ball on Jacksonville, it’ll put a lot of pressure on Herbert to make plays, tough environment in Jacksonville. I like the Jags 34-31 in the home upset
Orchard Park, NY
1pm on CBS (SUN)
LINE: (BUF -13)
The Dolphins must be a cursed franchise. They got into the playoffs by beating the Jets but now have to go to Buffalo with their third string QB, a limited receiving core, and a defense that has struggled as of late. Jeez
When the Bills run the ball, advantage: DOLPHINS – I give the edge to Miami because they’ve been one of the best run defenses in the league for a while now and we still don’t know the Bills full potential when they get their backs going
When the Bills pass the ball, advantage: BILLS – Miami plays too aggressive on defense way too much Andrew this opens up a lot of opportunities for Josh Allen and the explosive Buffalo offense
When the Dolphins run the ball, advantage: BILLS – Miami might have to turn to Salvon Ahmed to be their back against a Bills run defense that continues to improve
When the Dolphins pass the ball, advantage: BILLS – Can Skylar Thompson take shots down the field against Buffalo’s healthy secondary? Can he even get it that far to Waddle and Hill?
Special Teams, advantage: BILLS – Nyheim Hines just became a potential x-factor on special teams for the Bills in the return game
How can the Dolphins win this game: Run the ball…. a lot. Get stops on defense
How can the Bills win this game: No turnovers on offense and stop the run on defense
PREDICTION: I’m sorry but I cannot see the Dolphins going to Buffalo with Thompson at QB and winning this game. I think Miami’s defense will keep it close, but not enough offense this time. The cinderella story ends in Buffalo for the Dolphins. Bills win 38-13
Minneapolis, MN
4:30pm on FOX (SUN)
LINE: (MIN -3)
The Vikings beat the Giants on a 61 yard field goal by Greg Joseph three weeks ago. It now becomes a rematch in the playoffs back in Minneapolis with the Giants seeking a little revenge on the Vikings. Should be a great matchup
When the Vikings run the ball, advantage: GIANTS – I think the Giants front seven can make some noise and disrupt Minnesota’s ground attack with Dalvin Cook. They just have to get him down quickly
When the Vikings pass the ball, advantage: VIKINGS – Unless the Giants can permanently take away Justin Jefferson, its hard to see Kirk Cousins not being able to pick apart the Giants defense. Pass rush for New York will be key
When the Giants run the ball, advantage: GIANTS – Saquon and Daniel Jones ran through Minnesota’s defense in round one. I think they can do it again as the Vikings defense has not improved
When the Giants pass the ball, advantage: VIKINGS – Unless the Giants get Kenny Golladay more involved, they don’t have a downfield threat in the pass game to challenge Minnesota’s secondary
Special Teams: DRAW – Both have good kickers and good returners. Edge could go either way
How can the Giants win this game: Gotta get the passing game going and get after Kirk Cousins
How can the Vikings win this game: Take away the run and try not to fall down 34-0 at halftime (just sayin)
PREDICTION: UPSET OF THE WEEK: The Giants were in that game a few weeks ago. I think they’ll make plays on defense, Daniel Jones will not turn the ball over, Saquon has another big game. I’m gonna take the Giants and say that Minnesota’s magical season runs out of sand in the hourglass. Giants upset the Vikings 24-20
Cincinnati, OH
8:15pm on NBC (SUN)
LINE: (CIN -8.5)
Round 3 of Ravens-Bengals hinges on the health and safety of Lamar Jackson. If he can’t go and Tyler Huntley can’t go, rookie Anthony Brown will make his second straight start against Cincinnati. Talk about history repeating itself, the Ravens were in a similar situation last year and didn’t make the postseason. Can they defy the odds and take down the reigning AFC Champions?
When the Bengals run the ball, advantage: RAVENS – Baltimore’s run defense is still a problem for the Bengals offense. They need Joe Mixon to get going
When the Bengals pass the ball, advantage: BENGALS – Joe Burrow has lit up the Ravens in the past two home matchups. Baltimore’s secondary can’t hold its own against the Bengals stacked receiving core. Ravens have to find a way to shut it down
When the Ravens run the ball, advantage: RAVENS – This will get boosted if Lamar comes back, but the Ravens strength is their run game. Needs to explode in Game 3 against the Bengals
When the Ravens pass the ball, advantage: BENGALS – Anthony Brown was still sacked four times and threw two picks in Game 2 despite throwing for 286 yards. Baltimore has to protect whoever’s under center and take some shots down the field
Special Teams: DRAW – Tucker and McPherson are two very clutch kickers and neither team has a good return game. Might be the x-factor in the matchup
How can the Ravens win this game: Depends on who’s at quarterback but it comes down to passing on offense
How can the Bengals win this game: Run the ball, stop the run. That simple
PREDICTION: I’m expecting Lamar not to play so I will take the Bengals for the same reason as the Bills. I can’t see the Ravens doing anything in the pass game that makes me think they can win. This will certainly be a fistfight to the end, but the Bengals pull it out 28-20 in a close one
Tampa, FL
8:15pm on ESPN (MON)
LINE: (DAL -2.5)
It was Week 1 when Tampa dominated Dallas in Big D in their previous matchup. Round 2 is now a Wild Card game in Tampa with the Bucs and Cowboys sliding a bit. Tampa escaped Carolina to win the division while Dallas has dropped two of its last four games. Which team will find its mojo in the postseason?
When the Bucs run the ball, advantage: BUCS – Playoff Lenny and Rachaad White with have a big games against a struggling Cowboys run defense
When the Bucs pass the ball, advantage: COWBOYS – Tampa Bay is thin up front and while this is potentially a Tom Brady legacy game, Micah Parsons and the Dallas front seven might be able to keep him quiet
When the Cowboys run the ball, advantage: COWBOYS – Much like Tampa, Dallas has a two headed monster at running back but both Zeke and Pollard have got to get a good rhythm to get past this Bucs defense
When the Cowboys pass the ball, advantage: BUCS – I don’t have a lot of confidence in Dal Prescott right now and he’ll have to make plays against an experienced Buccaneers defense
Special Teams, advantage: COWBOYS – Kavontae Turpin could prove key on returns while the Bucs don’t have that threat yet
PREDICTION: I’m gonna pick the Cowboys, but I’m not as confident about it. The only problem I have with Tampa is their offensive line. Dallas beat them up in Week 1 when they were sort of healthy, now they’re even thinner at that position in the playoffs. Close, low scoring, a battle to the end, but I will take the Cowboys 21-17 over Tampa because of their pass rush